Airbnb Investment Analysis (How To With Proper Data)

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What's up guys, it's James here and in today's video, I'm going to be breaking down and analyzing a potential investment property that's a short term rental or a potential short term rental, I should say, in Asheville, North Carolina, a really cool and popular Airbnb and short term rental market. So that's what we're going to going to be doing in this video, I'm gonna be grabbing a property that's on the market right now at the time of this recording, and do a full analysis of it, see whether or not it makes sense as a short term rental. And hopefully this will help you to learn how you can analyze your deals better. Now, if you are interested in getting access to the analysis spreadsheet that I'm going to use in this training, or if you're interested in just learning exactly how step by step to invest successfully in short term rental properties and Airbnbs. Then make sure you check out the link in the description down below, there's a free training on exactly how to invest successfully in short term rental properties and Airbnb is, and when you sign up for that training, you're gonna get access to the training, and you're gonna get a copy of my analysis spreadsheet completely free. So make sure you go ahead and check that out, link in the description down below. Now also, before we dive in here, make sure that you hit that like button and subscribe to the channel to stay up to date with two new videos we post every single week. Let's jump in here. And let's start looking. So I've actually already got a home here. So I've just come on to onto realtor.com, just for the sake of this and I found this property here at 4848 Country gardens Lane in Asheville, North Carolina. Now, I haven't looked into short term rental regulations for this area. And that's going to be that stuff that we cover in different videos. So for this, we're just going to assume that for this property that it is that is legal to do short term rental with it. But obviously that is one of the first things that I would look into, if I were actually looking to purchase a home in this area. Now this is my first time going through these photos. And it looks really good. Now the reason that I picked this property specifically, by the way, was I really liked this a three bed, two bath 2000 square foot on a 2.59 acre lot. These dots to me made it really interesting because I'm looking at it going okay, there's three beds, two baths, that means I can easily accommodate six, maybe eight people 2000 square feet, that's plenty of space for everyone. And then there's a two and a half acre lot. That means I can probably put a geodesic dome. And I know that in Asheville, specifically, there's lots of geodesic domes on Airbnb that do really, really well like 3050. I've even seen some doing $100,000 a year. And so if I can put an auxilary dwelling unit of some sort on the property and boost my occupancy up, instead of having it be a six person occupancy, have it be an an eight person occupancy, that's going to be awesome, because the two bathrooms, I generally don't like to put more than five people to a bathroom. So I can occupy up to 10 people comfortably I would say this property assuming that the rest of the home will permit it. So if I can find the sleeping accommodations for those people in something like a geodesic dome, that can be really, really cool. So let's just look through it here. And I'm just gonna go Yeah, like everything looks pretty good. I wouldn't do any major renovations so far. I really like a white for walls, just so that we can add decor and have it like naturally well, we don't have to worry about matching our furnishing and decor to the walls too much. But honestly, it's pretty nice in here. I don't I don't mind the blue. And I think it just it's so open concept that I think for some reason that just makes it so I don't mind it as much. Yeah, so overall, they're really nice bathroom. And here we've got a nice a nice soaker tub. So that's really cool. Probably wouldn't bother repainting this just because it looks good enough. I might repaint this bedroom and redo the flooring and here so we've got some nice hard flooring. Tough to know whether this is carpeting in here I've really had it just blows me away that some people do put carpeting in their in their bathrooms. This to me looks like what do we got here. I want to count the bedrooms as we go. So we've got office space here we've got one bedroom with the carpeting. We've got a second bedroom, it looks like here. And then we've got the third bedroom somewhere in there as well. And looks like so there's a nice big laneway coming in here. You pretty easily put a geodesic dome here which is nice. I also love love, love that there's no neighbors right close by. So noise shouldn't really be a big issue outside. It's got some good outdoor space as well. So that's worth noting. Yeah, one, two. Not sure where the third bedroom is. Maybe this is a third bedroom. So overall, just for the oh, here's the third bedroom right here. Okay, and then yeah, like a nice big living area. Okay, this is that workstation. So yeah, this is gonna be a really great property I'm thinking so but obviously the numbers are going to are going to tell us so what we want to do here is pull up the short term rental calculator. I'm just going to label it here for 48 Country gardens lane, Asheville, North Carolina, like and get it done. Now it won't let me so I'll just do 48. country for a country gardens. Cool. So now let's put it in, let's just assume that we are getting it for purchase price, it's always worth looking to see how long the property has been listed for I actually don't know where to grab that on realtor.com Because I'm used to [email protected]. But somewhere in here, it'll tell you how long the property's actually been been listed on the market for see. Yeah, so it's listed on the 14th. So it's only been on there for a day. So yeah, I'm gonna say let's just assume that we could get it for asking price right now, obviously, I need to talk to the agent to get a better idea of what it would actually go for. But let's just let's just assume for right now that we could get this for 384 Nine, so let's put in 384,900, then we've got the closing costs, which are going to auto calculate their a home inspection $500. I think that's really reasonable furnishing, I'm just going to go over to this tab and we're going to say, Let's do to the Queen, two bedrooms, queen, one bedroom with two twins, or the one living room, one dining room, one kitchen, two bathrooms, miscellaneous, I would, I would honestly probably add a hot tub and or a sauna here, let's just assume that we're adding a hot tub, let's say because the the hot tub is always my go to if I can only do one of the two, because that's the one that's going to that people can actually search for, they can actually filter the search results on Airbnb specifically for just properties that that do have hot tubs, I'll add one of those, that brings it to 18,600 rehab work on this property, I would go into way more detail actually analyzing this after actually seeing the property or having my realtor go buy the property. Yet to clarify there, I wouldn't go buy to the property before we'd actually purchased it, I just don't see the need. I like to have my realtor go have an inspector go. There's different ways you can structure it. But I'm going to save about $5,000 where the renovation work, there's really not too much to do, there's some carpeting, I'd want to remove other stuff like that, that's about it. land transfer tax wouldn't be applicable here in the US. And then interior design, $600 photography and other $600. I like to pay a premium to get a really good job done on both. And then from here, let's just skip over our our revenue, we'll get to that last. But let's say that we're putting 20% down, I always like to even if I am doing a lower down payment or a higher down payment, I always like to look at all the properties I analyze first at 20% down just so I know how they compare relative to other properties. And I'm always aiming for at bare minimum of 15% cash on cash return and a moderate scenario with 20% down, let's say 6.5% on the interest rate. And then let's go over here for cleaning fees, I would call around in the area to see how much a cleaning goes for on a property like this, I'm going to assume it's probably about $300. And then we're going to do about one and a half cleanings per rented week. So the property is rented a full week, sometimes we're gonna get a week long booking sometimes we're gonna get two bookings throughout the week. So I'm going to say that it averages out to about one and a half cleanings per week that it's rented. So that's going to be 1.5 times 300 is 450. I think that's pretty accurate. Now let's go into advertising and tech costs. So for our software expenses, we use, we use one that's $35 a month and another $7 a month. So that works out to $504 a year, yard and snow on this property. I actually don't know what the climate is like in Asheville, but like what their winters are like, but if we look at the yard here, I would say there's really not that much honestly, that's going to need to be to be maintained. It's probably like I think $100 a month it might be overdoing it a little bit but there's gonna be leaves to be blown there's there might be snow to be cleared up. Forgive me, if you live in Asheville, and there's no snow there throughout the year, I'm actually not familiar with the area, I just know it's really great for short term rentals. Again, I would obviously look into this stuff more if I were actually looking to purchase this property. But let's say $100 a month. So $1,200 a year pool maintenance there is none electricity, let's see if we can grab that from the from the listing here. Sometimes they work in into monthly payment. So it looks like they've factored in the property tax which we'll want to know property tax at $108 per month. So that works out to let me just grab my calculator here 108 times 12 We'll put the property tax number in at 1296. Again, all this this stuff I would be I would be confirming with the the listing agent before actually putting in an offer but this is just for me to for me to look at some rough numbers to know is it actually going to be worth placing an offer on it? Or getting in touch with the realtor but yeah, that looks good. It doesn't look like they're gonna have the utilities expenses in here. So I was just want to look at okay, so 2015 was the last time it came on the market. So, nothing crazy there. Okay, cool. So for so for the rest of this stuff I'm going to take like my best my best kind of estimation of it and I'm also going to read through the property description to see if it can give us anything split bedroom floorplan two very large rooms and a third bedroom nursery and office building entertainment center. Large living room should be the front of the home. Cool. Closer shopping dining regulation activities, and the North Carolina Arbor are poor or boredom. I don't know what that is. Across the blue to Blue Ridge Parkway. Okay, so yeah, it really doesn't give us too much. Okay, here we go. We can see here. More details. Again, apologies for not being super familiar with with realtor.com. I'm used to being on the Canadian version one. So let's see. Okay, it gives us lots of good info here. So yeah, built in 2005. This is all just good stuff to know and to take in. Okay, yeah. So all in all, it looks pretty good. Doesn't give us much more about the expenses. So let's just go in here. And let's kind of assume that electricity is going to be $3,000. For the year, water sewer, I'm assuming that it's on septic. So let's say like, yeah, we're not gonna really have set on septic and then on, maybe a Well, I'm just gonna leave that for now, I'll come back to that cable internet, let's say I like to do $80 a month, but let's just say $100 a month to be more on the safe side, accounting is gonna be $1,000. For the year property taxes we got from the listing, I'll want to double check that and verify that homeowners insurance, I like to budget about $3,000, because with a short term rental, it is going to be more expensive to insure it, not going to be any HOA dues, anything like that. And then we're just going to have our maintenance reserve. So that's that. Now, from here, I would like I said, I really want to confirm and clarify just to kind of reiterate here that I would definitely be be confirming all these numbers with the listing agent, or have my buyer's agent confirm that stuff with the listing agent. So I can get accurate numbers before actually going firm on the property. But this is going to be sufficient for just getting getting a good idea of how the property is going to perform. Now, obviously, if you want to put in a Management Commission here as well, you can put in a Management Commission, if you're hiring a property management company, we would be doing it internally, because we've kind of built out our own internal management team. And that works really, really well. Because especially when you start having multiple properties, if you have five properties that each do $100,000 a year in gross revenue, that means that you add a 20% management fee or paying $100,000 a year in property management expenses. So from our experience, you can set up your own property management team to operate in house without you being involved for a fraction of that we're talking like 2030 $40,000. So you can really save save money on that. Honestly, I don't even think ours cos is 20 the way that we've got it set up. Now that's all really dialed in between software and property management. But it does take more work initially. So if you don't want to put in the legwork early on, obviously it's not for everyone. And so yeah, you can put it you can put in your 20% Management Commission there, or whatever it is in the market. Now the big question is just going to be the revenue side of things. So let's jump over to to air DNA here. And let's look through the revenue. So the first thing I want to do is look at averages. I'm not factoring in here, adding a geodesic dome. So for right now, I just want to look at the actual property itself. And then the adding a geodesic dome, things like that are really icing on the cake. So and I think it's going to do really well, I haven't looked at the numbers, specifically enough. So it'll be really interesting for me as well, to see just how well this this property could potentially do. But let's say that's a three bedroom that can accommodate six to eight people, right, it's got two bathrooms, we can put a pull out couch without doing the geodesic dome, let's just keep it there. There's 328 active listings in the area. So that's really good. That means that we can we've got a statistically significant data set to go off of, we're not just going off of a couple listings in the area. So that's really promising. Now I'm going to use air export, if it'll cooperate with me to just pull the numbers but if you don't, you can, you can download the air export Chrome extension if you'd like and use it. It's a little bit finicky at times. But it's super helpful when it does work. But if not, you can always just manually go and grab the numbers. So let's see Asheville revenue, there we go download that sheet. But otherwise, I would have just if I didn't, if I didn't have the or export, I would just literally go through here looking at the 75th percentile data, add it all up. But we do have export here working. So let's pull it up. And let's look at at the data. So I just want to know first off what is the what is the 75th percentile numbers for the so you can see we've got three bedrooms accommodate six to eight people. And we want to go for 2021 here and I just want to grab all the numbers. This column here that I'm in is the 20 is the 75th percentile data. So this is the top 25% of the market in column D here. So I'm going to sum that up, that comes out to 83,000 065. So let's put in 83,000 065. And here, and then we want to look at the projected occupancy rate as well is going to be another important one. Because if the occupancy rate is higher, that means we're gonna have more cleaning expenses, if the occupancy rate is lower, that means we have lower clean. So let's go ahead and grab the same, but we'll just do occupancy for three bedroom accommodates, let's say six to eight people. Okay, in Nashville, great, let's download that. And now we don't want the sum, obviously, we just want the average for the same number. So we're just going to go equals average of the 2021 numbers. For There we go. So 86.3%. So what I want you to do is watch this number here when I change this. So when I increase the projected occupancy rate, you'll see this 17,005 50 is going to jump up. So we're going to put it to 86.3, let's just do a nice 87 Be a little bit more conservative. So you can see that jumps up $3,000. Right. So that's really important that we get this number accurate. The average nightly rate I don't really care about because average nightly rate is not actually a really useful thing at this stage of the analysis. And that's the challenging thing is that a lot of people rely purely on that average nightly rate to try to calculate their revenues, I'd much rather look at the whole picture, how much revenue does a property bring in and look at the occupancy rate, let the average nightly rate workout to whatever works out too, because it's not what's really going to happen, right, what's really going to happen is you're not just going to price your property at $262 a night, every single night of the year, you're going to price it differently in the low season versus the high season versus the mid season during the weekends during the weekdays. So it's not, it's not really a practical number to use right now in our calculation. But you can see from from running these numbers here, this looks really strong, right? This is this is coming out to a cash on cash return of 24.18%, we're looking at at $25,000 a year in cash flow based on the numbers we've put in. So that looks really good. But what I now need to do is go and validate, can we actually pull 83,000 065 out of this property, right? And that's going to be my first test. So there's a few different levels of tasks I like to do. The first one is this one where I go and see, okay, can I actually pull that because that's the average of these 328 active listings, which they're they're three bedrooms that are commonly six, eight people in Asheville, great, but maybe the majority of them are way nicer than the property I'm looking at. Or maybe the majority of them are not nearly as nice as the property is the property that I'm looking at. So I want to kind of validate this with some more qualitative data. And so to do that, I've just basically reduced this, this map here down to just three bedroom properties, I'm going to look for properties that are in the vicinity here in the same general area. So let's pull this up on Google maps here. And let's look at where it is. And we can start there work our way out. I don't think it's incredibly critical that it be right in the same area of Asheville. But we want to be kind of in the same neighborhood, we want to be in the same general area. So we're actually what's that southwest of Asheville. So let's kind of look over here in this area, right over here is where it kind of looks like it like the property is. So let's see, what I want to know is are there let's try to find some some properties that are similar. So here's one right here, really good looking. So normally, I wouldn't care for this one because it was only available for 244 days in the year. But because of the fact that in those 244 days, it brought in $86,000 in revenue, I'm actually interested because if this one is really similar to the one that I'm looking at, and it brought in $86,000 in revenue in just 244 days, good chance I can bring in 83 over the whole year if they're really similar. Now what I don't like doing is seeing if this number showed 50,000 Let's say then trying to extrapolate and say oh well if it did $50,000 in 244 days of the year, then good chances are if it was available all year, it could have hit 80 really tough to make that call because you don't know which 244 days out of the year it was available for maybe it was only up in the high season and the days it wasn't available it were or low season days. So that's something I don't like to do but this one let's kind of look through here. So yeah, right off the bat like it looks it's certainly more modern inside than the property that we're looking at. But a lot of that has to it has to do with the furnishing, to be honest some cosmetic works and some paint work. So I like it. I like this is a comp to be honest. Yeah, so let's see how many people have got it set up to accommodate as well because that's really important one that's going to make a difference. Sleeps eight. Yeah. So sleeps eight people that's really promising that this property in the same kind of area in 244 days, it was listed Brian $86,000 in revenue, we might want to, we might want to increase our budget, we might want to do something like this and go, Okay, well, let's spend an extra $10,000, like an extra $5,000 on on the rehab work to, you know, repaint things like maybe add some trim that kind of stuff, and you can see our cash on cash return is still good. And then we can get it really close to where this property is that again, you know, I

understand that the renovation on this one, like the kitchen is nicer, for example, more modern, right, and we're not going to do that for an extra $5,000 to get it to that and get that nice hardwood floors. But you have to remember that a lot of that stuff isn't really stuff that short term rental guests actually care about it as long as it looks really nice. And it's comfortable, then short term rental guests are going to be happy with it. They don't care if it's real hardwood, or if it's final, for example. So you need to keep that kind of stuff in mind as well. So that's one really good concrete there. Let's see. Let's look through some other ones. 90 days available. 197 days available, those aren't really got good. Here's one that was available for Okay, great. So for 357 days of the year, so pretty well the whole year. And this one brought in $80,000 in the year now right off the bat, this this has got some wonky colors some pretty bad photography in here. I mean this property did did that. Well now it might be because it looks like they're stuffing a bunch of people in here. So maybe their occupancy is or maybe they're like their number of people they allow is really really high. But like this is a terrible listing this is just an awful listing. Yeah, they're they're allowing 14 guests is the reason why so not a great comp because we're not going to want 14 People in our property. But it is promising to see that like a horrible listing like this is just a terrible listing. Sorry Hani if this is your listing and you're watching, but this is a terrible listing really bad photos. Not a really nice property, just the bare necessities. They haven't done much to it and Brian ATK. Now, again, it's because it's a bit of a party house there. They're allowing up to 14 people, but good to see. Here's one that I'm interested in, because this one brought in only 33,000. Again, it's it's like you can't really extrapolate from this because it's like four months out of the year that wasn't on Airbnb, and we don't know which four months. But it's also Yeah, this is a pretty terrible listing as well, like just so bare bones. I've only got a few photos on there. So that's not really that concerning if it was some beautiful property, and a really nice listing, I'd be more concerned. But here's one that was available for 356 days of the year. brought in 75,003 bedroom, two bathroom accommodate six. So again, being that doesn't call me eight, I can see that, you know us making up the gap there. Really nice property though. Yep. overall really good. They've done a great job. It's an Ikea property for sure. But But I mean, they've done a good job at it looks good. Yeah. So that's good. That's good to see that one did right, right around 75,000. Can see this one is your backyard pool oasis. This one did 68,000. So I'd be a little bit concerned with that, like this property looks like it's a pretty nice property that only did 68,000. But again, like there's there's definitely room for, for improvement on a lot of people's just listing strategy. So I probably run the numbers here on like, 68,000, see how it would look there. But what I really want to look more at is going to be 50th percentile data. So let's just assume that we keep the high occupancy rate, the expenses stay high, but let's just say that we only perform at the 50th percentile data for 2021. And let's see how that looks. as sort of a, a more a more negative scenario. Yeah. 58,000. Okay, so if the numbers work at 58,000, then that would be promising. If not, we might be a little bit concerned. Right? Holy smokes, that's pretty good, right? Because if you look at it, like all these properties we've looked at have outperformed that 58k. The bottom half of the market like the top half of the market, the 50th percentile of the market in in 2021, did 58,000. And this property is still above breakeven at that, right. And with a high occupancy rate, that's with an 87% occupancy rate. If we drop this down to a more realistic like, let's see, let's see what I would actually really so let's not guess at it, let's just add up or average out rather the 50th percentile occupancy rates for 2021. See what those Sadat so that's 70%. So if we drop this down to 70%, then we're still on a 5% cash on cash like that's, that's pretty darn good. Yeah, like I think that's really interesting. So now I also want to look back and do a bit more of a store Call analysis. So like, let's go back into 2020. And see how the 75th percentile numbers did in 2020. If it's been a big, big jump up or a big drop down, not sure what what happened in in Asheville, not yours for performance wise, see 65,000. So we're still within a good a good spot. And then in 2019, let's see what the numbers did. So the numbers in 2019, there we go. We're still in a good spot. We're still above that 58. Like if we went to 50th percentile from a couple years ago, we might be in, we might be into cashflow negative, but like there's a lot of buffer room here. So yeah, I'd be really interested in this property at this point, because that was my first thing is like, I like to run the averages, see what it looks like, looks like an average scenario, this property should be able to do 25 ish percent cash on cash return fantastic. Looks like based on actually looking at some qualitative comps, it'll do, it should be able to actually do that. Again, I might dig in more if I were actually looking to put an offer, I might dig in more and see some more comps go more in depth on that. But from the ones that I saw, I feel pretty good about it. And then and then the next thing I did was go and look at like my worst case scenario. Okay, well, how did some of these properties do had the 50th percentile do how's it done in past years, if we kind of regress back to past years, and by all accounts, honestly, it's looking really strong. And what I'm looking for in that worst case scenario is not some huge cash on cash return I'm not looking for in a worst case scenario for me to make some 15% cash on cash. What I'm looking for is to be above breakeven, I don't ever want to be in a scenario with a property where I'm going to be cashflow negative, because when you cashflow negative, meaning you have to take money out of your own pocket every month to pay the property's mortgage in carrying costs, then that leaves you exposed to a lot more risk, right. Because if you can no longer afford to pay those expenses out of your own pocket, you might be forced to sell the property. And if you're forced to sell the property and the market is low, that's where you get into real hot water. So I always like to make sure that even in a worst case scenario, we're still going to be at least at cash flow breakeven. And I'm still gonna make a return on the on the principal pay down the mortgage and on the eventual appreciation of the property when I wait, and I hold on to it longer term. So it's not the end of the world, if it's cash flowing at neutral at breakeven, especially as a worst case scenario where my best case scenario is 25% cash on cash, that looks really good, I'd be really interested in this property. And the icing on the cake is this is with a hot tub, which the other properties didn't have. So that's budging and a hot tub, that's budging and $10,000 for the renovation. And I also have acreage so I can also then go and do a geodesic dome on the property I can do, I can do some ad use there. And honestly, with how the property setup, I can probably go and do that as its own standalone if I wanted to and have a whole separate listing on the property. But if it were me honestly, if I were just getting started with it, I probably look to do one that's just going to be shared with the main house. So when you book the main house, you also get the the geodesic dome, so that way I can just do one that's under 10 square meters, probably not gonna need any permitting for it, I can have people be able to sleep out there under the stars get the experience but still have have access to the plumbing, the kitchen, the bathrooms, all that stuff without me having to do a run plumbing and everything else to to the geodesic dome. So and then we can basically increase the occupancy rate on or the occupancy limit the max occupancy on the property really comfortably. And you know, I just set one of those up in my other property that's an investment of about 11,000 USD for everything to get it furnished get the platform for a bill, get the dome Bill shipping furnishing everything. So it's a pretty nominal investment. And it's almost surely going to increase the the numbers because you saw that horrible listing on Airbnb that had a 14 person occupancy, it managed to squeeze out $80,000 last year. So adding extra heads on beds definitely does make a difference in the numbers. So I'm really interested in this property, I might just share this with with my inner circle my student group, see if anyone wants to buy it. If you want to be a part of that if you want to learn exactly how to invest successfully in short term rental properties, then make sure you check out the link in the description down below. Check out that free training, you'll also get access, like I said, to this analysis calculator, this, this ROI calculator. So just make sure you sign up just for that, grab that make sure you have your hands on so you can analyze deals really accurately and effectively. And make sure you check out that free training as well. It's going to walk you through the whole process of how we invest successfully in short term rentals. So you will not want to miss that. And you might be out of an opportunity as well to work in my inner circle so we can share these kinds of amazing deals with you before they get snatched up. So again, access all that links in the description down below. If you liked this video If you got value from it, I put a lot of time into this one obviously. So if you did, I'd really really really appreciate if you'd take a quick second just Hit that like button. Also if you want access to two new videos every single week if you want to stay up to date with those as we post them on the channel, make sure you hit the subscribe button subscribe to the channel for more. With all that said, have a fantastic rest of your day and I'll see you next video.