How booking pace tells you when to change prices
Guests book at fairly predictable lead times. On average, only about 14% of a month’s bookings exist three months out, about 38% exist a month out, and about half exist two weeks out. So 4 nights booked for a month that is 90 days away can be right on pace, while the same 4 nights two weeks out means you are far behind.
This calculator multiplies your target nights for each month by the share of bookings that normally exist at this distance. That tells you where you should be today. Compare that to what you have booked and adjust: ahead of pace means you are underpriced, behind pace means you are overpriced or under-marketed.
Setting target occupancy by season
Your targets should match what your market supports in each season, not a single annual number. A beach market might target 90–100% in summer and 45% in February. Start with the defaults, then adjust them using your own booking history or comparable listings.
How big a price change to make
Small gaps call for small moves of 5–10%. Large gaps call for 10–20%. Re-check every week. Pricing is a feedback loop, and the hosts who earn the most adjust often rather than setting rates once a season.
Frequently asked questions
How do I know if my Airbnb is priced too high?
Compare the nights you have booked against where you should be at this point. If you are more than a few nights behind pace for a month, your price is likely too high for current demand. The calculator suggests lowering rates 5–10% or 10–20% depending on the gap.
When should I raise my Airbnb prices?
When a month is booking faster than normal pace. Being two or more nights ahead suggests a 5–10% increase, and four or more ahead suggests 10–20%, because you are leaving money on the table.
What is a good occupancy rate for Airbnb?
It depends on your market and season. Rather than one annual number, set a target for each month that reflects local demand, then price to hit it. Maximum revenue usually comes from a high but not perfect occupancy with strong nightly rates.
Does this replace dynamic pricing software?
No. It complements it. Tools like PriceLabs set daily rates automatically. This calculator gives you a monthly check on whether your base price and minimums are set right.